New: based on the past week’s evidence, we’re revising our House outlook to a Dem gain of 30-40 seats (was 25-35 last month) at @CookPolitical. This could change again before Tuesday.
-
This Tweet is unavailable.
-
This Tweet is unavailable.
-
Nope. You don’t understand what 538 does. They don’t do polling. The look the available polls for other places (hence the word polls) and they produce a statistical model to predict the probability of a candidates chance of winning.
538s model says *nothing* about what % of the vote a candidate will get.