New: based on the past week’s evidence, we’re revising our House outlook to a Dem gain of 30-40 seats (was 25-35 last month) at @CookPolitical. This could change again before Tuesday.
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Nope. You don’t understand what 538 does. They don’t do polling. The look the available polls for other places (hence the word polls) and they produce a statistical model to predict the probability of a candidates chance of winning.
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538s model says *nothing* about what % of the vote a candidate will get.
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No one is disputing the outcome of the 2016 election except those who say that Trump won the popular vote. I talked about for weeks that she could lose. I wasn’t surprised at all when she did. Because I knew there was a 33% chance she would lose. Because of polls.
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