New: based on the past week’s evidence, we’re revising our House outlook to a Dem gain of 30-40 seats (was 25-35 last month) at @CookPolitical. This could change again before Tuesday.
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I don’t believe any polls anymore. As a Dem we should ignore the polls
16 replies 3 retweets 115 likes -
Replying to @marybl62 @Redistrict and
The polls in general weren’t wrong in 2016. The interpretation of what the polls meant was wrong. We need to understand uncertainty measures: commonly 95% confidence levels which means even the one time in 20 the result falls outside the confidence interval the poll’s not wrong.
9 replies 4 retweets 93 likes -
Exactly. I’m not sure why so many people are having difficulty with this.
8 replies 2 retweets 43 likes -
Replying to @DrChristineMann @railmaps and
Polls are inaccurate when disseminating more localized elections like House races. They cannot account for district realignment, multiple primary issues. Taking generic polls at face value for House races is incredibly stupid
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @amlivemon @railmaps and1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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Replying to @DrChristineMann @railmaps and
How about not referencing Nate silver who has been atrocious last 3 elections
2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @amlivemon @railmaps and
And, the article I posted is about large independent scientific studies done by two different groups, neither of them named Nate Silver.
2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @DrChristineMann @railmaps and
Watch as Cruz wins by 7+ then go sit in a corner and wonder what happened
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
I think that that’s a likely outcome. Based on polls that show Cruz ahead.
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