Dr. Christine Eady MannVerified account

New: based on the past week’s evidence, we’re revising our House outlook to a Dem gain of 30-40 seats (was 25-35 last month) at @CookPolitical. This could change again before Tuesday.

I don’t believe any polls anymore. As a Dem we should ignore the polls

The polls in general weren’t wrong in 2016. The interpretation of what the polls meant was wrong. We need to understand uncertainty measures: commonly 95% confidence levels which means even the one time in 20 the result falls outside the confidence interval the poll’s not wrong.

Exactly. I’m not sure why so many people are having difficulty with this.

Polls are inaccurate when disseminating more localized elections like House races. They cannot account for district realignment, multiple primary issues. Taking generic polls at face value for House races is incredibly stupid