New: based on the past week’s evidence, we’re revising our House outlook to a Dem gain of 30-40 seats (was 25-35 last month) at @CookPolitical. This could change again before Tuesday.
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I don’t believe any polls anymore. As a Dem we should ignore the polls
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Replying to @marybl62 @Redistrict and
The polls in general weren’t wrong in 2016. The interpretation of what the polls meant was wrong. We need to understand uncertainty measures: commonly 95% confidence levels which means even the one time in 20 the result falls outside the confidence interval the poll’s not wrong.
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Exactly. I’m not sure why so many people are having difficulty with this.
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Replying to @ReaderFearless @railmaps and
No, they weren’t. The polls always showed a very close race. Trump was given a 33ish % of winning. 1 in 3 is not a small chance, not rare. If there’s a 1 in 3 chance of rain, you’re gonna take your umbrella. Lastly, Clinton won the popular vote by a lot. Just as the polls said.
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Chime in any time! I’m always looking for a good laugh.
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