Dr. Christine Eady MannVerified account

New: based on the past week’s evidence, we’re revising our House outlook to a Dem gain of 30-40 seats (was 25-35 last month) at @CookPolitical. This could change again before Tuesday.

I don’t believe any polls anymore. As a Dem we should ignore the polls

The polls in general weren’t wrong in 2016. The interpretation of what the polls meant was wrong. We need to understand uncertainty measures: commonly 95% confidence levels which means even the one time in 20 the result falls outside the confidence interval the poll’s not wrong.

Exactly. I’m not sure why so many people are having difficulty with this.

There is alarming ignorance in the general population about basic statistics, and that's manipulated by some who want to seed opinions. At least that's the case here in Australia and I surmise is the case elsewhere too.

Ignore the polls, work to GOTV! That’s the way to win BIG. Over 300 campaigns looking for help today! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aPO5ZeC42Jc1U70FQeqYoDsMepTnQOXyl_LHl6aRH68/htmlview#gid=0 …

Imagine if you didn't have to GOTV. Imagine a system where, instead, you could focus on debating the substantive policy issues. We don't get everything right in this country, but this is one area we do well: https://www.aec.gov.au/Voting/Compulsory_Voting.htm …