New: based on the past week’s evidence, we’re revising our House outlook to a Dem gain of 30-40 seats (was 25-35 last month) at @CookPolitical. This could change again before Tuesday.
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The polls in general weren’t wrong in 2016. The interpretation of what the polls meant was wrong. We need to understand uncertainty measures: commonly 95% confidence levels which means even the one time in 20 the result falls outside the confidence interval the poll’s not wrong.
Exactly. I’m not sure why so many people are having difficulty with this.
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There is alarming ignorance in the general population about basic statistics, and that's manipulated by some who want to seed opinions. At least that's the case here in Australia and I surmise is the case elsewhere too.
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Ignore the polls, work to GOTV! That’s the way to win BIG. Over 300 campaigns looking for help today! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aPO5ZeC42Jc1U70FQeqYoDsMepTnQOXyl_LHl6aRH68/htmlview#gid=0 …
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Because most people don’t have PhDs, Doctor. Nuance does not generally win out, unfortunately.
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It's not Rocket Surgery though. I don't have a PhD either, and I understand the concept of uncertainty and confidence levels.
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Polls are inaccurate when disseminating more localized elections like House races. They cannot account for district realignment, multiple primary issues. Taking generic polls at face value for House races is incredibly stupid
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That’s correct, your interpretation is wrong. Per their analysis, Trump had an almost 10% chance of winning. That’s not a rare chance. That many/most people viewed it as a given that Hillary would win is not the fault of the polls or the forecasters.
End of conversation
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I’m cool with that.
End of conversation
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