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Prikvačeni tweet
Our gift to Bitcoin’s 11th Birthday- The Little Bitcoin Book中文版 PDF: http://t.cn/AisqzfAc passcode: yvom Word: http://t.cn/AisqzfAV passcode: xwqi Gitbook: http://t.cn/Ais5xFZD “请接过这棒火炬,传阅这本手册,让更多人知道比特币。”
@gladstein@jimmysongPrikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
The biggest challenge of running a crypto project is not just finding product market fit, but also seeking tangible milestone That’s why we see so many over-raised projects fall apart, founders lose focus, team lose morale This was common in 2019, and will continue in 2020
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Dovey 以德服人 Wan proslijedio/la je Tweet
Is it called Ripple, XRP, or dogshit? Who knows, who cares. It’s worth more than zero so it’s time to trade the USD pair on BitMEX. Boo-Yaka-sha!https://twitter.com/bitmexdotcom/status/1224494544525201408 …
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There is a good Chinese saying “大胆假设,小心求证” to deal with Quarantiner’s dilemma. Literally means ”make bold assumption, verify carefully”https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1224092155058249731 …
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Not sure what defines “better”. Mining might be the only few economic activities that’s intact or barely impacted. As mining is usually isolated and remote in rural areashttps://twitter.com/fomo2020/status/1224529479202148360 …
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Instead of spending time on bioweapon conspiracy theory, I’m more interested in what new economic/tech trend will emerge after this
#cornovirus outbreak. Alibaba, JD, and SF express all emerged and benefited from the unusual lifestyle pivoted during SARS last timeHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
MOOC and remote working/WFH suddenly become a thing over night with maybe > 90% penetration rate in China due to
#coronavirus WFH/study is required for at least another week or more Related tech companies’ CAC suddenly becomes 0, amazingHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
as local gov/community has the autonomy to adopt the actual quarantine method, some can be aggressive. Last time during SARS, an uncle of mine was traveling to Bejing and locked down in a remoted hotel for 3 weeks before he got outhttps://twitter.com/DoveyWan/status/1224202139603357696?s=20 …
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the paper published by Prof Gabriel Leung on
@TheLancet is a good reference on how effective quarantine/mobility reduction can contain the epidemic, it's generally a good read, highly recommend https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext …pic.twitter.com/NpOvpbHncW
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This time Wuhan has over 5mm ppl (fig 1) outbound during CNY. there is analysis already tracking the 5mm outbound, most are in Hubei Province, fig 2) CNY is a huge social gathering event, like Thanks Giving. The immediate quarantine is necessary to prevent chain effectpic.twitter.com/PCSG4DBxLl
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1. During SARS there was quarantine as well for ppl from Beijing & Guangzhou (I was quite chilled last time as a kid since school got canceled, I stayed home the whole time and play video games lol) Quarantine is a very effective method to block out the transmission.
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I have been through SARS last time in the epicenter Guangzhou, the hospital known for carrying a few highly-transmitted cases is just a few blocks away from home Many methods for
#coronavirus like quarantine, emergency hospital are NOT new as lessons learned from SARS (threadPrikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
the chart above from
@nytimes also forgot to mention another caveat on the overall nationwide infected numbers: During Chinese New Year, 5m out of the 11mm Wuhan ppl headed out to other regions during the holiday. This makes the national transmission rate hard to modelPrikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
After reading a handful of scientific papers and modeling with different assumptions, I think the chart below illustrates the characteristics of
#coronavrius really well. I'm never a fan of any conspiracy theories, most fall into the realm of Occam's Razor Don't trust, verifypic.twitter.com/ufzYqVlGny
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a local mainstream media's in-depth investigative report is also backing above assumption, which gives you a good picture of the chaos in Wuhan local hospital and why the reported death number seems to be under-reported http://www.sohu.com/a/370032279_120094087 …pic.twitter.com/8s4bX6L4xQ
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What's the actual mortality rate? the official number might be delayed/under-reported, but knowing the process of "reporting death" makes it hard to accurately extrapolate. Since the elders seem to be effected disproportionally, many died before they can have a proper PCR test
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IF 1% infection rate, Wuhan population is ~10mm: 100k infections. IF 10% are serious infection needs full hospitalization, it aligned with public health governer once stated in news release "Hubei province prepares 100k beds capacity and Wuhan plans 10k" http://www.sohu.com/a/369482924_428290 …pic.twitter.com/hsI9yORLns
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2. most being evacuated are foreigners whose social circles generally are much narrower than Wuhan locals. Given #1 and 2, So the actual density of infection can be higher but let's use 1% on the conservative side for now
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a few caveats 1. Thorough medical exam has been done before each evacuation, who have been evacuated shows NO symptoms before onboarding this is confirmed by a local Wuhan who just sent his wife & daughter (both Germany) out via evacuation process https://m.douban.com/people/30338291/ …pic.twitter.com/oz8WTxv3gk
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Given more # are now released by countries like Korea, Japan, Germany that have evacuated citizens from Wuhan, a relative calculation cross the board as a proxy shows infection rate is around ~1% in Wuhan (cont.pic.twitter.com/1SZ1xE9W7k
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During 2019 Chinese New Year week, offline retail/grocery and restaurant have made over 1 Trillion RMB (~175 Billion USD) ... and GDP from these two sectors alone will be completely wiped out for almost entire Jan/Feb Can't imagine how bad the number gonna be for Q1 2020 ..
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