Dovey 以德服人 Wan   

@DoveyWan

🇨🇳🇺🇸🇸🇬 Founding Partner . Advisor to . ED @ , 🌏 citizen, amateur 🦈 chaser. ₿uy and

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Vrijeme pridruživanja: listopad 2011.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet

    Our gift to Bitcoin’s 11th Birthday- The Little Bitcoin Book中文版 PDF: passcode: yvom Word: passcode: xwqi Gitbook: “请接过这棒火炬,传阅这本手册,让更多人知道比特币。”

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  2. The biggest challenge of running a crypto project is not just finding product market fit, but also seeking tangible milestone That’s why we see so many over-raised projects fall apart, founders lose focus, team lose morale This was common in 2019, and will continue in 2020

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  3. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Is it called Ripple, XRP, or dogshit? Who knows, who cares. It’s worth more than zero so it’s time to trade the USD pair on BitMEX. Boo-Yaka-sha!

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  4. There is a good Chinese saying “大胆假设,小心求证” to deal with Quarantiner’s dilemma. Literally means ”make bold assumption, verify carefully”

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  5. Not sure what defines “better”. Mining might be the only few economic activities that’s intact or barely impacted. As mining is usually isolated and remote in rural areas

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  6. Instead of spending time on bioweapon conspiracy theory, I’m more interested in what new economic/tech trend will emerge after this outbreak. Alibaba, JD, and SF express all emerged and benefited from the unusual lifestyle pivoted during SARS last time

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  7. MOOC and remote working/WFH suddenly become a thing over night with maybe > 90% penetration rate in China due to WFH/study is required for at least another week or more Related tech companies’ CAC suddenly becomes 0, amazing

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  8. as local gov/community has the autonomy to adopt the actual quarantine method, some can be aggressive. Last time during SARS, an uncle of mine was traveling to Bejing and locked down in a remoted hotel for 3 weeks before he got out

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  9. the paper published by Prof Gabriel Leung on is a good reference on how effective quarantine/mobility reduction can contain the epidemic, it's generally a good read, highly recommend

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  10. This time Wuhan has over 5mm ppl (fig 1) outbound during CNY. there is analysis already tracking the 5mm outbound, most are in Hubei Province, fig 2) CNY is a huge social gathering event, like Thanks Giving. The immediate quarantine is necessary to prevent chain effect

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  11. 1. During SARS there was quarantine as well for ppl from Beijing & Guangzhou (I was quite chilled last time as a kid since school got canceled, I stayed home the whole time and play video games lol) Quarantine is a very effective method to block out the transmission.

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  12. I have been through SARS last time in the epicenter Guangzhou, the hospital known for carrying a few highly-transmitted cases is just a few blocks away from home Many methods for like quarantine, emergency hospital are NOT new as lessons learned from SARS (thread

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  13. the chart above from also forgot to mention another caveat on the overall nationwide infected numbers: During Chinese New Year, 5m out of the 11mm Wuhan ppl headed out to other regions during the holiday. This makes the national transmission rate hard to model

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  14. After reading a handful of scientific papers and modeling with different assumptions, I think the chart below illustrates the characteristics of really well. I'm never a fan of any conspiracy theories, most fall into the realm of Occam's Razor Don't trust, verify

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  15. a local mainstream media's in-depth investigative report is also backing above assumption, which gives you a good picture of the chaos in Wuhan local hospital and why the reported death number seems to be under-reported

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  16. What's the actual mortality rate? the official number might be delayed/under-reported, but knowing the process of "reporting death" makes it hard to accurately extrapolate. Since the elders seem to be effected disproportionally, many died before they can have a proper PCR test

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  17. IF 1% infection rate, Wuhan population is ~10mm: 100k infections. IF 10% are serious infection needs full hospitalization, it aligned with public health governer once stated in news release "Hubei province prepares 100k beds capacity and Wuhan plans 10k"

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  18. 2. most being evacuated are foreigners whose social circles generally are much narrower than Wuhan locals. Given #1 and 2, So the actual density of infection can be higher but let's use 1% on the conservative side for now

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  19. a few caveats 1. Thorough medical exam has been done before each evacuation, who have been evacuated shows NO symptoms before onboarding this is confirmed by a local Wuhan who just sent his wife & daughter (both Germany) out via evacuation process

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  20. Given more # are now released by countries like Korea, Japan, Germany that have evacuated citizens from Wuhan, a relative calculation cross the board as a proxy shows infection rate is around ~1% in Wuhan (cont.

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  21. During 2019 Chinese New Year week, offline retail/grocery and restaurant have made over 1 Trillion RMB (~175 Billion USD) ... and GDP from these two sectors alone will be completely wiped out for almost entire Jan/Feb Can't imagine how bad the number gonna be for Q1 2020 ..

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