Updated semis/AI portfolio weights. Dumped a ton of cash into this. Hoping to let it ride for awhile. If you want more short term hype weight ASML/NVDA/TSM more.
If you think the market is too optimistic about rates (which it is) then the Expected value of generic market beta (like sp500 index) basically has to be negative. Im only so long equities because I'm willing to pay a lot for AI exposure. This is very basic logic.
Still happy enough with roughly same portfolio. Sold nvidia at a bad time but such is life. Sometimes you sell before earnings to avoid vol and the earnings look good. Everything but ASML has reasonable enough 'value'. Im planning to deploy the cash once we get a single rate cut.
I'm going to start doing good but risky trades for 1% of net worth. Usually I skip trades like shorting X since they are so risky and the EV isn't astronomical. If returns are insane ill willing to YOLO most of my NW. But im missing out on smaller chunks of EV by skipping stuff.
Felt the first signs of a UTI this morning. Immediately took antibiotics. Rapidly felt much better. You can easily buy antibiotics online at places like https://fishmoxfishflex.com. Dont let doctors gatekeep life changing meds and delay your treatments by hours or days!
"The average household spends $5,111 each month on housing and other monthly expenses. $1,784 or 35% of that is for housing and $819 or 16% is for transportation. So those 51% of our working year (~6 months) is spent earning money to pay for housing and transportation"
My attempt at a reasonable AI/semis portfolio:
MSFT - 10%
INTEL - 10%
Nvidia - 15%
SMSN - 15%
Goog - 15%
ASML - 15%
TSMC - 20%
Interested in alternative ideas. Less interested in shifting the weights small amounts.
Related: China is opening up, covid zero is ending. Assets like FXI look extremely juicy. Some friends bought short-term, near-the-money FXI calls. But lots of china stocks look good here.
The dollar is extremely strong so allocate more of your portfolio to international equities. Even just buying SCHF instead of VTI is a reasonable play. But take advantage of the dollar's strength!
The spores can be made much more durable by simply mixing them with mineral oil.
The brand name Aprehend (https://aprehend.com/aprehend/) is Beauveria mixed with oil. There might be a cost-effective provider in your area but DIY is very cheap. (4/5)
Luckily the Beauveria bassiana fungus is an effective and cheap treatment. Spores spread where bedbugs will come into contact. Once they germinate, they kill the bedbugs. Spores spread from bug to bug. They also disperse into the environment and survive well if humid. (3/5)
Landlords are required to pay for bedbug extermination, but they can opt for ineffective chemical treatment. Bedbugs are surprisingly hard to spread but are fairly resilient. (2/5)
Bedbugs are a solved problem. Release the fungal bio-weapon:
Bed bugs are quite resistant to almost all pesticides; chemical extermination usually fails. Heat treatment works, but you need to heat infected areas to at least 120F. This can be pretty expensive. (1/5)
Ongoing question: What about sequences of transactions? Solana's RPC, as far as I know, don't let you feed hypothetical account data when simulating. (12/12)
This is a super powerful way to preview transactions that goes way beyond the simple token balance change previews that wallets do today.
Of course it is not exclusively relevant to DAOs. Soon I will be working on an open source SDK for IDL-enhanced transaction previews. (11/12)
Many programs these days have on-chain IDLs that Anchor deploys alongside the program. These IDLs describe account layouts.
For programs that lack an on-chain IDL, we could just store their IDLs in a repo / frontends can plug in their own IDLs. (10/12)
Improvement 4: Use simulation and IDLs to show diffs for ALL accounts written to by a proposal.
Unlike the first three, this proposal hasn't launched yet but Solana makes it very tractable. (8/12)
Improvement 3: Previews!
The realms team improved on warning by adding a review function. You can just simulate the proposal and see exactly what the config will be if it executed. This lets you see the before and after. (7/12)
Improvement 2: Warn Users when accounts are swapped
Solana has write locks in transactions so we can check if a proposal is writing to certain accounts even if a custom program is used! (6/12)
Here is a screenshot of the old UI.
The old plugin is Gnft..., the new proposed one is 3P7w...
IMO you'd have to be a real knower to be able to figure out that a switcheroo is taking place (or wisely solicit help from a real knower). (4/12)
Your plugins are set on a config account which has other configs! Including things you'd change regularly. For example if you are emitting more gov tokens. (3/12)
Improvement 1: Warn Users when configs change!
Realms (the Solana DAO program everyone uses) has plugins that let you define custom behavior for assigning how many votes everyone has. Plugins can be swapped using a DAO vote. (2/12)