India really has arrived.
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Derek J. Grossman
@DerekJGrossman
National security and Indo-Pacific analysis . Professor . Words in , , , etc. Views mine.
Derek J. Grossman’s Tweets
🔥 Jaishankar in Australia when asked about why India maintains a close defense partnership with Russia: “For multiple decades western countries did not supply weapons to India & saw military dictatorship next to us as a preferred partner.” 🔥
Really good and necessary revision. High time India got credit, and not in a colonial context which is insensitive and irrelevant.
Putin's invasion of Ukraine has begun. Seriously, what is Pakistani PM Khan doing in Moscow?
🔥 Jaishankar is on a roll. Here he is on UNSC reform: “We will end up with an increasingly irrelevant UN. [There are a] whole host of countries in Latin America, Africa, Small Island states…who feel this is not their UN.” 🔥
India's opposition party is wrong. Jaishankar has probably been among the most successful in his role.
Translation: there will be no more “lectures” to India about human rights, freedom, and democracy. The partnership is now a two-way street, with Washington also learning from New Delhi. Again, India has won the argument.
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The U.S. and India have always had much to learn from one another. At @HowardU I discussed how Howard Thurman's pilgrimage to India and interactions with Gandhi influenced a key figure in our nation’s journey: Martin Luther King, Jr. We share a special bond indeed.
India deserves a seat on the UNSC. If only China wouldn’t veto it. All other permanent members would strongly support.
China’s window of opportunity to one day control Sri Lanka probably just closed.
I believe we are living through the “golden era” of Indian foreign policy. For the first time, New Delhi is engaged everywhere and serving as a strategic crossroads of great power competition. India may well become a great power itself soon.
India doesn’t care what the US does with CAATSA. Jaishankar: “It is their legislation and whatever has to be done has to be done by them.”
Jaishankar’s schedule in the US has been intense. Ten days (NY/DC). 50 meetings, of which 40 were one-to-one, apart from bilateral, trilateral and group meeting. Engagements with Secretaries of State, Defense, and Commerce plus National Security Adviser. Unreal stamina.
And what gives Indian diplomats newfound confidence? India is getting stronger, the international system is rapidly shifting to multipolarity, and Modi inspires them.
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Yes, the Indian Foreign Service has changed.
Yes, they follow the orders of the Government.
Yes, they counter the arguments of others.
No, its not called Arrogance.
It is called Confidence.
And it is called defending National Interest.
It’s official, the Philippines is getting India’s BrahMos. China won’t be pleased!
Ok, time to leave India alone.
I never quite understood why the US ever sold F-16s to Pakistan for counter-terrorism operations. Fighter aircraft aren't necessary for counter-terrorism. And now we're sustaining them. No wonder India wonders about the US.
Singh: “I cannot say openly what they (Indian soldiers) did and what decisions we (the government) took. But I can definitely say that a message has gone (to China) that India will not spare anyone, if India is harmed.”
I can’t help but read Jaishankar’s comments and think that a new dawn is upon us: a multipolar world.
I want to speak directly to my many Indian followers on Rep Omar’s recent trip to Pakistan. We have separation of powers in US govt—legislative, executive, & judicial branches. Thus, executive (Biden admin) had no authority over her trip; visit has zero bearing on official policy
"Indian PM Narendra Modi has an unusual nickname on the Chinese internet: Modi Laoxian (莫迪老仙). Laoxian refers to an elderly immortal with some weird abilities. The nickname implies...Modi is different--even more amazing--than other leaders."
Well, well, well…
👀👀 Jaishankar: “The overall influence of the west in the global order has come down.”
Taliban: “As Muslims, we also have a right to raise our voice for Muslims in Kashmir, India or any other country.”*
*However, this offer is not valid for Muslim Uyghurs in Chinese concentration camps.
Biden to Modi: “You are causing me a real problem. Next month we have a dinner for you in Washington. Everyone on the whole country wants to come. I have run out of tickets. You think I am kidding. Ask my team. I am getting phone calls from people I have never heard of before…
India’s position of maintaining its longstanding Russia partnership, even though I may disagree with it, has worked out quite well. Modi govt is now in a position of strength dealing not only with Moscow and Washington, but European capitals and others too.
Indian MEA: "If such a politician wishes to practice her narrow-minded politics at home that may be her business, but violating our territorial integrity in its pursuit makes this ours. Condemnable."
Modi’s India is perhaps the most pro-American India we’ve ever seen.
India may become the world’s third largest economy as early as 2027!
Jaishankar: “When the rules-based order was under challenge in Asia, the advice we got from Europe is do more trade. At least we’re not giving you that advice.”
India may be world’s best hope for a deal to end Ukraine conflict before it worsens. No other country has such solid ties with US and Russia. No other is an emerging great power in its own right or so nonaligned. Indonesia and Israel tried but failed. Turkey and Vietnam won’t try
India is about to hold its first-ever summit with all five Central Asian leaders. Neither China nor Russia have accomplished that feat. My hat’s off to New Delhi.
👀 India going real hard. No reiteration of “One China” principle in Pelosi/Taiwan context and instead New Delhi flies the Dalai Lama to Ladakh. Releases photo to throw it in Beijing’s face.
Jaishankar on F-16s to Pakistan: “if you look at the last 75 years, it has not served the world well by propping up military dictatorship.”
The US could never have pulled off this deal, so from that perspective, China has contributed to Middle East peace. Good.
Trust comes, not from words, but deeds. US should take note. "France has been one of India’s closest partners in Europe for decades. Paris was the only western capital to not impose sanctions on New Delhi after India conducted nuclear tests in 1998...
First, India overtakes the UK as the world’s fifth largest economy.
And now, an “Indian son rises over the empire.”
India is smiling today ☺️
"India’s economy is larger than three member countries of the G-7–France, Italy, and Canada...India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world and is expected to grow at 5.9% in 2023-2024. India is also the fastest growing economy in Asia."
Two major election results this week in Indo-Pacific: Yoon Seok-yeol wins presidency in South Korea and Yogi Adityanath wins second term as chief minister of India’s Uttar Pradesh. I think latter more relevant because shows BJP staying power and sets Adityanath up to follow Modi.
“We are victims of global powerplay...You [PM Modi] are the leader of Global South."
--Papua New Guinea PM Marape to Modi.
Germany may have just spoiled its India ties. German FM: “Germany has a role and responsibility with regard to the situation of Kashmir. Therefore, we support intensively the engagement of the United Nations to find peaceful solutions in the region.”
Vietnam may soon (finally) purchase India’s Brahmos missiles. Indonesia may follow.
India can no longer trust Russia. China-Russia ties deepening. Russian state-run media outlet criticizes New Delhi on Kashmir. Pakistan PM heads to Moscow this month with Putin likely visiting Islamabad soon. Russia invading Ukraine would undermine rules-based order India upholds
India’s decision not to condemn Russian aggression vs Ukraine is absolutely deafening. New Delhi may believe it can’t influence Moscow, doesn’t want to potentially tank bilateral ties, or both. India is the only Quad participant condoning Russian misbehavior. Really bad look.
Biden’s call for Putin not to remain in power will be perceived by Xi and other Chinese leaders as a direct threat to their power as well. The net effect will be a further strengthening of China-Russia ties. Today was a monumental shift in US policy and an even bigger mistake.
Yellow states have sanctioned Russia, gray have not. Nearly the entire Global South hasn’t sanctioned Russia and their condemnation likely isn’t coming any time soon. Vast majority of the Indo-Pacific is included in this group.
China Twitter is ablaze today. 🔥 Personally, I prefer India Twitter. ❤️
😱 Biden on Pakistan: "Maybe one of the most dangerous nations in the world...Nuclear weapons without any cohesion."
Modi keeps the Indian economy humming, especially when compared to the last Congress-led government. This, combined with shrewd foreign policy maneuvering amid multiple crises, make it hard to see how BJP could lose elections over the foreseeable future.
Russia keeps India near.
Indian finance minister: “India wants to be friends with the European Union and the Western, free, liberal world, but not as a weak friend that needs desperate help here and there."
China won’t be pleased, but India doesn’t care.
In response to FM Wang emphasizing PRC support to Pakistan’s Jammu & Kashmir claims, India implies it might not remain quiet on China’s “internal issues” much longer. Relations would really tank if New Delhi starts to raise Hong Kong, Taiwan, Tibet, and Xinjiang. Never say never!
It isn’t crazy to argue that Modi and the BJP are the most pro-American govt India has ever had.
Please don’t do this. In no way is India happy about Queen’s passing. Modi posted a very heartening message. Also keep in mind she reigned over an unprecedented & systemic period of *de-colonization*. These types of headlines just feed narrative that Western media are anti-India.
India takes a stand.
India authorizes new Taiwan representative office to open in Mumbai. New Delhi is really becoming a thorn in Beijing’s side.
Jaishankar: “The people of India want good neighbourly relations with Pakistan, as does the Government of India, However, good neighbours do not carry out or condone terrorist activities.”
👀 ‼️ Most Indians STILL view Russia as an ally, or at least “a necessary partner.”
India is an emerging great power.
Don’t believe me?
“The Indian delegation played a big role in achieving consensus among member states over the wording criticising the Russian invasion, according to two officials with knowledge of the negotiations.”
on.ft.com/3TCOAAY
👀Senior Taliban official: “We care about the oppression of Muslims, be it in Palestine, in Myanmar, or in China, & we care about the oppression of non-Muslims anywhere in the world. But what we are not going to do is interfere in China’s internal affairs.”
Papua New Guinea PM just created his Twitter account and is following only one person: Modi. twitter.com/JamesMarape/st
This Tweet is unavailable.
I have been hopeful that India-Pakistan ties were quietly on the mend. Today I’m far less hopeful.
Music to India’s ears. Modi’s govt and the BJP won’t be hearing any American “lectures” on democracy, freedom, or human rights. That approach is over. (thehindu.com/news/national/).
China insults the Indian people.
MFA spox: “When assessing a country’s demographic dividend, we need to look at not just the size but also the quality of its population. Size matters, but what matters more is talent resource.”
fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_6
Jaishankar on newly-minted Ambassador Garcetti’s criticism of India’s human rights and CAA: “Let him come to India. [We] will make him understand with love.”
Today was a BIG day for US-India partnership. Both sides bent a little. US won’t punish India for Russian oil imports. India voices strong humanitarian concerns in Ukraine AND acknowledges Russia-China axis hurts New Delhi’s interests. Implies India’s Russia policy isn’t working.
Jaishankar in Rajya Sabha: “Yes 2014 was a watershed moment, yes things have become better after 2014, yes our foreign policy has become more dynamic and prominent after 2014.”
Modi became Prime Minister in 2014.
If Russia does invade Ukraine, which seems likely now by most accounts, then the US can kiss goodbye maintaining an Indo-Pacific focus in 2022. Eastern Europe could easily become the new Middle East that bogs down Washington. All of this is to say China would win.
Xi must be horrified at Putin’s Ukraine setbacks so far. He has overwhelming numbers/highly capable forces. He doesn’t have to worry about direct US/NATO intervention. He tried softening Ukrainian people via influence ops/cyber. And yet. Conquering Taiwan feels harder than ever.
On Russia, India truly stands apart from its Quad partners.
India visited European countries *finally* as an equal, both in its own mind and minds of counterparts. Modi stuck to his guns on Russia—and everyone just has to deal. Yes, India has arrived and the world is more multipolar because of it.
Indian-media outlet spotlights perceived Western hypocrisy by listing other countries still accepting Russian oil besides India:
--China
--France
--Germany
--Greece
--Italy
--Turkey
--Poland
--The Netherlands
--Hungary
I think the US-India strategic partnership today is mature enough to weather this storm. Let me know if you agree.
"India lives in a difficult neighborhood, and there are no easy, straightforward solutions. But thus far—and especially under Modi—India has managed its foreign-policy challenges with remarkable effectiveness." From my latest piece.
France has stronger ties to India than any Anglo-Saxon country ever could. Colonial history & New Delhi's perception of Anglo-Saxon hypocrisy on rules-based order and values questions fuels distrust. Paris' pragmatic & less critical approach more appealing.reuters.com/world/france-f
Today’s news that China has brokered a peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia cuts both ways. On the one hand, peace deals are good for everyone, including US. On the other, China spearheading such diplomatic initiatives is further proof US influence globally is in decline.
India meets with a Pacific Island nation. This is how great powers think and act: globally.
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Very nice to meet FM Justin Tkatchenko of Papua New Guinea.
Spoke about our ongoing cooperation with the Pacific Islands. Discussed next steps for taking it forward in the coming days
Literally unthinkable, even just two years ago.
True. Putin: "PM Narendra Modi is one of those leaders in the world who is able to pursue independent foreign policy in the interest of his own country & his people...without any attempts to stop him in this movement, he continues going towards his goals."
(For China)
Passing the gavel from one non-aligned nation to the next: India will host the G-20 in 2023.
A great power in the making, if India continues to play its cards right.
Modi: “On the basis of track record, in the third term of our government, India will become the world's third-largest economy. This is Modi's guarantee.”
