Source: https://www.ecodibergamo.it/stories/premium/Cronaca/coronavirus-il-numero-reale-dei-decessiin-bergamasca-4500-in-un-mese_1347415_11/ … (requires free registration to read)
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Largest study of Bergamo province so far finds out that: - 5400 people died this March - 4500 of which suspected COVID deaths - 2600 of which officially COVID - Compared to 900 deaths only, average of last 3 years (sampling cities representing >50% of local population)
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A deeper analysis of deaths undercounting and increase in absolute death rates regardless of cause:https://pandemic.substack.com/p/the-elephant-in-the-room-undercounting …
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Typo in the above. The confirmed COVID deaths are 2060, not 2600. So the undercounting is even more accentuated.
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Whats the variation in deaths over the past 15 years? What about other districts? If Covid is a death accelerant for the elderly, will their deaths be less in the next few years? What do you think?
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The tab "just the flu" of this spreadsheet has the variation of deaths over the past 15+ years: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VnWi3TP5yEjKoi_CwMxbcaOCLI0ItpqR6Jjna1HYfRA/edit#gid=0 … Yes, I do think that mortality will be lower for a few years after this pandemic ends.
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4500 suspected COVID + 900 base rate = 5400. Does that mean there was a negligible number of excess deaths that were indirectly caused by COVID, like people unable to receive cancer treatment?
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The point is Italian COVID19 deaths may be dramatically underestimated in the official numbers, and therefore actual death rates significantly higher than official data would indicate.
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I’m so sorry for Italy’s loss. Do you know if numbers in Italy are based on suspected or official covid deaths?
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Official italian numbers are based on official deaths. Therefore they are understating. Which is why I don’t understand why everyone listens to them.
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Ha sbagliato, e ancora peggio - 2060 non 2600. E terribile. Qua, in Polonia tutti preghiamo per Italia. Tutto andra bene!
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Giusto!
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