Wouldn't a better term be heuristic not bias? Bias implies routine error, heuristic is a rule of thumb with useful properties but which can lead astray. This seems more like the latter.
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I suspect all biases are residue of some overmatched heuristic
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Normative Lindy (at a glance, the p values look a bit suspect though)
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What do you mean by "Normative Lindy" ? I've seen terms like this get tossed around recently, and I'm not sure what it's referencing.
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That's not a bias; the convertibility of being and goodness is a metaphysical thesis, and a correct one.
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Not a bias if it’s true.
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@nntaleb This is a question I have when thinking about the Lindy effect. How can "historic luck" be discounted, or measured for? in the case of Judaism I could say luck seems discounted as Jews were attacked bef. & through the diaspora and the religion shows antifragility. Still: -
The problem of this paper is that it only says people regard more value to something the longer it last. It doesn't go to disprove Lindy. And maybe people do that because of a learned perception of value based on survival because it's actually true.
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