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DegenRolf's profile
Rolf Degen
Rolf Degen
Rolf Degen
@DegenRolf

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Rolf Degen

@DegenRolf

Science writer and book author in psychology, neuroscience and evolution

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plus.google.com/u/0/1010469164…
Joined July 2013

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    Rolf Degen‏ @DegenRolf 12 Nov 2018

    People morally condemn and punish others for applying sound "Bayesian" statistical reasoning to group members - which they blithely adopt themselves. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956797618805750 …pic.twitter.com/FcM9yBGHCz

    11:54 PM - 12 Nov 2018
    • 44 Retweets
    • 130 Likes
    • Argos Brandon Alter Dr. Travis Gee Fabio Cooper Thomason x Trey Rose anon Adrián PB
    3 replies 44 retweets 130 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Zvi Adama‏ @AdamaZvi 13 Nov 2018
        Replying to @DegenRolf

        Wonder if the context makes a difference. Would people condemn police detectives using Bayesian reasoning to decide which lead to follow in a murder investigation, for instance?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Joe S‏ @JoeSmit84460720 13 Nov 2018
        Replying to @AdamaZvi @DegenRolf

        Not only would they condemn it, they’d hold a protest

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Zvi Adama‏ @AdamaZvi 13 Nov 2018
        Replying to @JoeSmit84460720 @DegenRolf

        Quite the hypothesis.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      5. deen-chan‏ @sir_deenicus 13 Nov 2018
        Replying to @AdamaZvi @JoeSmit84460720 @DegenRolf

        It's ironic don't you think, that the snippet shows a strong lack of understanding just what bayesian probability is. First, "bayes rule" is regular conditional probability. Second, while being a surgeon would be higher, having same skills as surgeon would be exactly the same

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      6. deen-chan‏ @sir_deenicus 13 Nov 2018
        Replying to @sir_deenicus @AdamaZvi and

        That is, once we've observed the act, even though probabilities of being a surgeon continue to gate on sex, the probability of being as skilled as a surgeon gates solely on succesfully completing the act. Thus the probability of having the same skill is the same regardless sex

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      7. deen-chan‏ @sir_deenicus 13 Nov 2018
        Replying to @sir_deenicus @AdamaZvi and

        Second, there is no such thing as "Bayesian rationality". There is "consistent updating of a set of weights assigned to some set of propositions after observations". It is impossible to achieve exactly in reality due to computational intractability. Even approximate is too hard.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      8. deen-chan‏ @sir_deenicus 13 Nov 2018
        Replying to @sir_deenicus @AdamaZvi and

        Here is what I mean, written in a probabilistic programming DSL I work on. observe (act && g =X); return (issurg) vs observe (act && g =X); return (sameskills), the latter will not depend on what g is equal to while the prior will.pic.twitter.com/jc1ontIEf6

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      9. deen-chan‏ @sir_deenicus 13 Nov 2018
        Replying to @sir_deenicus @AdamaZvi and

        Oh, to show information flows properly (is surgeon? when the act isn't observed, conditional probability is: (also, model correctly captures that P(surg | failed) < P(surg)))pic.twitter.com/SXaDP45LH6

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      10. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. The Circular Ruins‏ @Circular_Ruins 13 Nov 2018
        Replying to @DegenRolf

        I have trouble with the "Forbidden base rate" theory on the ground, because just like a judge instructing a jury to disregard a prejudicial outburst, it's hard to get people living in the real world to disregard other variables influencing their perception of data 1/

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. The Circular Ruins‏ @Circular_Ruins 13 Nov 2018
        Replying to @Circular_Ruins @DegenRolf

        ... Including their suspicions as to the intent of the questioner (what is the real question here and how will my answer be framed) and their hypotheses about third factors influencing the observed data 2/2

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. The Circular Ruins‏ @Circular_Ruins 13 Nov 2018
        Replying to @DegenRolf

        The first 2 studies in this paper have a strange structure that seems to introduce an asymmetry in likelihoods: the likelihood of *doctor *given *performed surgery* is much higher than firefighter| extinguished fire and butcher|butchered pig. 1/

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. The Circular Ruins‏ @Circular_Ruins 13 Nov 2018
        Replying to @Circular_Ruins @DegenRolf

        This differential in likelihoods would influence respondents' view of the Bayesian reasoner more than social desirability bias. I'm not sure using a Likert scale on fairness accounts for the way people heuristically estimate likelihoods 2/

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation

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