Wonder if the context makes a difference. Would people condemn police detectives using Bayesian reasoning to decide which lead to follow in a murder investigation, for instance?
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Not only would they condemn it, they’d hold a protest
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The first 2 studies in this paper have a strange structure that seems to introduce an asymmetry in likelihoods: the likelihood of *doctor *given *performed surgery* is much higher than firefighter| extinguished fire and butcher|butchered pig. 1/
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This differential in likelihoods would influence respondents' view of the Bayesian reasoner more than social desirability bias. I'm not sure using a Likert scale on fairness accounts for the way people heuristically estimate likelihoods 2/
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I have trouble with the "Forbidden base rate" theory on the ground, because just like a judge instructing a jury to disregard a prejudicial outburst, it's hard to get people living in the real world to disregard other variables influencing their perception of data 1/
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... Including their suspicions as to the intent of the questioner (what is the real question here and how will my answer be framed) and their hypotheses about third factors influencing the observed data 2/2
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