Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 30 June 2022
Find out more about the UK government's response: ow.ly/jEJ550JLe5o
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Ukrainian forces continue to hold their positions in the city of Lyschansk following their withdrawal from Sieverodonetsk.
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Russian forces continue to pursue an approach of creeping envelopment from the Popasna direction, removing the need to force a major new crossing of the Siverskyi Donets River in this sector.
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Current ground combat is likely focused around the Lyschansk oil refinery, 10km south-west of the city centre.
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At the operational level, Russian forces continue to make limited progress as they attempt to encircle Ukrainian defenders in northern Donetsk Oblast via advances from Izium.
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It is highly likely that Ukrainian forces’ ability to continue fighting delaying battles, and then withdraw troops in good order before they are encircled, will continue to be a key factor in the outcome of the campaign.
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Last sentence: As long as Ukraine can hold some while and then escape safely without being completely slaughtered; then Ukraine is reasonably OK. But when that fails the blow to Ukraine will be massive.
Why??! The best troops & weapons lost at once, or what?
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The turning point of the war has arrived. Russia is pooling its last resources to gamble. Ukraine is about to win. There will be a military coup in Russia next month.
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