My overall read: If Dems can get candidates through the top-two system, still in very good shape to win majority. But if they lose a couple gimme seats bc of the system -- which is looking like an increasingly real possibility -- path narrows a bit.https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/668302?unlock=PALRHE1XJRRD8URE …
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If you are a candidate running in a closed primary, you work to appeal only to the partisan extremes who vote. To win in top-two, candidates must appeal to much more ideologically diverse electorate.
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Theoretically yes. But in CA it hasn’t worked out that way.
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It’s made a difference, especially right after the change for the 2012 election. People compare based upon recent elections but forget what it was like before top-two. See this analysis for more—>http://www.latimes.com/local/politics/la-me-cap-moderates-20141113-column.html …
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I’ll look, maybe so - but am pretty confident in saying CA has never been this Lefty, so I’m not sure what the practical impact has been.
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One thing I'm surprised by is the lack of strong third-party candidates, since the "spoiler" effect is moot if your candidate places high enough in round 1. Top-two is used by the French for their presidential election, which led to Macron winning: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2017 …
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Also, the Times' editorial board suggested that a center-right third-party in CA be formed and cited top two for why it's feasible:https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/12/opinion/california-third-party-republicans.html …
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