What could possibly go wrong? =>https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/994176238846664706 …
He has "some" reason to be confident. Not every. But these things are debatable.
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the only thing working against Trump right now, and obv things change, is the historical trend that works against the incumbent during the first mid-term. Dem party is in the toilet and his popularity is on the rise, economic numbers are rising too, etc
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I don't doubt the GOP will lose seats in the House, but they could lose 15 and still keep control. People who were saying they GOP would lose 50 seats 3 or 4 months ago look like morons right now
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It depends on how ironclad the predictions were. I look at a moment in time and say: "If election was today, then..." I keep doing that over and over. Today looks better than 3-4 months ago. So my analysis is different today than then.
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I have seen people who predict elections for a living say on here that the GOP would lose more than 40 seats this fall. that's up to them to say but it certainly doesn't look that way right now. At the moment I think between 10 and 20
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My range is 15 - 22, based on most recent reporting. But again, that's only "if election were held today." My range changes constantly w/ fresh data.
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of course, it has to. but the GOP has 241 now, needs 218 to keep control. that's 23. so even using your high end, the GOP keeps control right now, that's what you're saying
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Yeah, that's more or less where I'm at. I say 50/50 but IOW I'm not sold on a flip yet.
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Not saying the GOP has a lock on anything, HW Bush's approval was 90% the year before he failed to get re-election. But right now Trump has every reason to think they're going to hold the House and pick up 5 Senate seats
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Quibble around the edges, but who knows. I place House odds at 50/50.
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I think 50/50 is right at the moment but the trendline is in the GOP's favor. it def was worse than 50/50 for them a month ago, without some major problem (lol right) on Trump's end, it will be better than 50/50 in another month
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Then you've got the Senate map, which is literally the best for 1 party that I've ever seen in my life. N Korea is about to release hostages, that will be another feather for Trump. on and on
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Dem party has no platform, like Newt had in 94 or Tea Party had, Dem party has no message, Dem party has no leader, their fundraising is behind GOP fundraising, and this MeToo thing is hitting them worse than the GOP. Biden just said a new racist thing yesterday
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