They showed no such thing. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/ … https://mobile.twitter.com/mclvogt/status/968836930329874432?p=v …
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Selzer polls in Iowa and Florida showed Trump leading. The Iowa poll showed with like a 7 point lead. The Florida poll had him up 2 points, which is exactly right.
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Selzer was one of the few pollsters to deviate and explained it by saying that the electorate looked pre-Obama which was dead on, that wasn't a fluke, that was being a good pollster
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I remember the one state polling shocker to me being Wisconsin. Marquette's last poll had Clinton up 6 and they're a great outfit
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All the WI polls were like that. And if WI was holding, an upset in PA/MI seemed quite impossible.
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The WI Marquette polling is a case of being off. But that's just one state and if Florida was in play than other states could to. Plus MI was trending Trump at the end.
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Thanks for replying in such a level-headed way repeatedly. Spending way too much time reading polls during the election, i guess i remember the outliers more than the average.
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The Wisconsin poll is an interesting one fwiw. But that's a story for another time.
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I think I speak for all election nerds when I say...pic.twitter.com/fVlq1JmDSr
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Sure, Fl was more or less fair.....WI/PA/MI not so much. ( Not even talking NV)
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NV polls were fine enough. PA polls were fine - it's just that most people don't take seriously what "margin of error" means. Final PA polls were w/in the margin. MI polls showed a tightening race toward end, but needed more. I looked at all these polls & said: He can win
End of conversation
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