A few things on #ALSEN: 1) After polling ticked back toward Moore post sexual misconduct allegations, I predicted pretty confidently he would win. So crow for breakfast. 2) This race is a reminder of a few key political maximums...
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...3) Candidates matter. Even in races it would seem a party can't lose - they can lose if voters deem the nominee too flawed. 4) Presidential transference to a candidate is difficult. AL Republicans like Trump, but enough of them rejected Strange & then Moore...
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...5) Worst place for a political party to be is the spot where it believes it simply can't lose (see 2010, see 2016, see
#ALSEN) In 2010, Ds believed Obama's magic would save them. Currently, many Rs believe 2016 was a permanent pivot. Uh, NO. ...3 replies 4 retweets 5 likesShow this thread
...6) On polling. Prob isn't polls, it's the analysis (h/t @SeanTrende.) Moore's final RCP average advantage = 2.2 points. That's MOE. Means Jones' 1.5 win was possible. But analysts tend to discount & say polling was off. It wasn't necessarily (nor was it in 2016) -fin-
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