I can buy that he's at 45%. But the oversample issue is not an issue per se.
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We had him at 44% last round. Of course if I had to guess, there's probably a decline in his future given the Jr. coverage. Fair or not.
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44% (or 45%) make sense to me. Gallup's been on low end, sometimes I think Ras is on high end.
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Rasmussen was also quite good last year.
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Lots of polls were good in ways. The FL polls were all good, the nat'l polls were accurate in terms of popular vote. Problem was analysis
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Quinnipiac had Clinton ahead by 4 in FL. NBC by 2.
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Other FL polls (can't remember which) had Trump up and the averages showed pure tossup. 538 pegged FL perfectly, actually.
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Nate Silver lost all his credibility last year.
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I have to run & write but my main point is this: Polls largely correct, contrary to popular opinion. Problem was how analysts interpreted
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Ask Richard Baris. Every state he polled last year (President, Senate) was almost equal to final result.
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