I'm guessing a 1996 fifteen point deficit = a 2016 eight point deficit.https://twitter.com/seantrende/status/767886419721355264 …
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Replying to @DavidMDrucker
If that were true you wouldn't be able to predict presidential elections so well with data including the 70s and 80s.
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Replying to @SeanTrende
what I meant was, given hardened partisanship, would 8 points in 16 cause same decision making as 15 pts in 96?
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Replying to @DavidMDrucker
IOW, have races been closer because of polarization, or because we haven't had 7% growth like Reagan had in 84?
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Replying to @SeanTrende
I was making a qualitative argument about psychology - that 8 pots would cause same freakout that 15 caused 20 years ago...
7:30 PM - 22 Aug 2016
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