If that were true you wouldn't be able to predict presidential elections so well with data including the 70s and 80s.
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what I meant was, given hardened partisanship, would 8 points in 16 cause same decision making as 15 pts in 96?
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IOW, have races been closer because of polarization, or because we haven't had 7% growth like Reagan had in 84?
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I was making a qualitative argument about psychology - that 8 pots would cause same freakout that 15 caused 20 years ago...
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@SeanTrende cell phones. Skew everything. Also Trump effect = 5 to 10 pts easyThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@SeanTrende Especially when running against HillaryThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@SeanTrende that's interesting bc of the 24 hr coverage, and only 20% vote up for grabs now I think it would be oppositeThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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