Basically, the polls tend to get the trends right. History of averages since 2004 is quite good 4 big races:http://washex.am/2aQ0Agz
-
-
Replying to @DavidMDrucker @SeanTrende
(2)4 times since '68 there have been 5 pt shifts late not attributable to bad polling. '68, '76,'80. '00. cf '96
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @dcg1114 @SeanTrende
Polling and data so much more advanced. My point isn't that the race can't/won't shift, it's that polling will catch it
3 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @DavidMDrucker @SeanTrende
(2) Larger point: events create volatility, not polling error. Historically events happen more frequently late.
2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @dcg1114 @SeanTrende
Averages smooth out the volatility. Check the GOP primary - they got the trends right. Trump won. If anything, it's...
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @DavidMDrucker @SeanTrende
You are conflating polling error with late shifts because of real change in opinion. You don't get it.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
I get it, we just disagree on how to interpret things. But You make me think, appreciate the critical feedback.
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.