Basically, the polls tend to get the trends right. History of averages since 2004 is quite good 4 big races:http://washex.am/2aQ0Agz
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Replying to @DavidMDrucker @SeanTrende
(2)4 times since '68 there have been 5 pt shifts late not attributable to bad polling. '68, '76,'80. '00. cf '96
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Replying to @dcg1114 @SeanTrende
Polling and data so much more advanced. My point isn't that the race can't/won't shift, it's that polling will catch it
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Replying to @DavidMDrucker @SeanTrende
(3)"Events dear boy, events". Black swans are more frequent that you think: which a historian should know.
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Replying to @dcg1114 @SeanTrende
We just disagree on point three. But anything is possible with these two candidates, obviously.
5:07 AM - 12 Aug 2016
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