Basically, the polls tend to get the trends right. History of averages since 2004 is quite good 4 big races:http://washex.am/2aQ0Agz
-
-
Replying to @DavidMDrucker @SeanTrende
(2)4 times since '68 there have been 5 pt shifts late not attributable to bad polling. '68, '76,'80. '00. cf '96
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @dcg1114 @SeanTrende
Polling and data so much more advanced. My point isn't that the race can't/won't shift, it's that polling will catch it
3 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @DavidMDrucker @SeanTrende
(2) Larger point: events create volatility, not polling error. Historically events happen more frequently late.
2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
Replying to @dcg1114 @SeanTrende
..often Dem leaning voters that are harder to find.
5:07 AM - 12 Aug 2016
0 replies
0 retweets
0 likes
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.