Basically, the polls tend to get the trends right. History of averages since 2004 is quite good 4 big races:http://washex.am/2aQ0Agz
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(2) Larger point: events create volatility, not polling error. Historically events happen more frequently late.
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Averages smooth out the volatility. Check the GOP primary - they got the trends right. Trump won. If anything, it's...
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You are conflating polling error with late shifts because of real change in opinion. You don't get it.
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I get it, we just disagree on how to interpret things. But You make me think, appreciate the critical feedback.
End of conversation
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(3)"Events dear boy, events". Black swans are more frequent that you think: which a historian should know.
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We just disagree on point three. But anything is possible with these two candidates, obviously.
End of conversation
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(1) Refusal rates far higher now. Gallup went door to door, had refusal rates close to 0.
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