The polls aren't skewed, Trump is losing to Clinton http://washex.am/2aOkfKi via @DCExaminer
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Replying to @DavidMDrucker
…McCain, or even overestimated his performance, but off several points on Obama. iirc, in all but a few were too R by 3-4 pts
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Replying to @DanaHoule
..Yeah looking back, avgs just before ED have a good record. ... I come at this a someone who never unskewed but was skeptical..
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Replying to @DavidMDrucker
…the ED polling averages over-estimated Repub performance. It’s what made me laugh hardest at unskewers in 2012
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Replying to @DanaHoule
I think in 14 it underestimated GOP performance in some senate races but got trend right. (You're right about 2012 Obama.)
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Replying to @DavidMDrucker
…then the cause was same: they’re doing such heavy weighting based on such small sub-samples of young/PoC hard to get right
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Replying to @DanaHoule
Fair and good points. ... Curious to see what we (me) learn from polling this cycle.
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Replying to @DavidMDrucker
I suspect we’ll see a growing gap btwn media & campaign pollsters, bc of growing diff btwn RDD & samples from voter file
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Replying to @DanaHoule
I'm assuming that data analytics allows a good campaign to know A LOT more than media or run-of-mill pollsters. Yes?
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Replying to @DavidMDrucker
Yes, bc trends in oppo directions. Campaigns getting better, & RDD polls getting nearly impossible to consistently do well
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What I figured. I figure that's a real good reason to pay attn to ad patterns and personnel.
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Replying to @DavidMDrucker
SHHHH. Don’t give away a good idea that sets you apart from vast majority of campaign reporters & analysts!
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Replying to @DanaHoule0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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