The polls aren't skewed, Trump is losing to Clinton http://washex.am/2aOkfKi via @DCExaminer
..Yeah looking back, avgs just before ED have a good record. ... I come at this a someone who never unskewed but was skeptical..
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…the ED polling averages over-estimated Repub performance. It’s what made me laugh hardest at unskewers in 2012
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I think in 14 it underestimated GOP performance in some senate races but got trend right. (You're right about 2012 Obama.)
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…then the cause was same: they’re doing such heavy weighting based on such small sub-samples of young/PoC hard to get right
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Fair and good points. ... Curious to see what we (me) learn from polling this cycle.
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I suspect we’ll see a growing gap btwn media & campaign pollsters, bc of growing diff btwn RDD & samples from voter file
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I'm assuming that data analytics allows a good campaign to know A LOT more than media or run-of-mill pollsters. Yes?
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Yes, bc trends in oppo directions. Campaigns getting better, & RDD polls getting nearly impossible to consistently do well
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What I figured. I figure that's a real good reason to pay attn to ad patterns and personnel.
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Actually, I think they have a spotty record. Statewide polling averages were too pro-Repub in 2008 & 2012. Even in 2010…
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I think they tend to get the trend right. RCP underperformed Obama's strength in 12 but got the trend right
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