…McCain, or even overestimated his performance, but off several points on Obama. iirc, in all but a few were too R by 3-4 pts
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..Yeah looking back, avgs just before ED have a good record. ... I come at this a someone who never unskewed but was skeptical..
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…the ED polling averages over-estimated Repub performance. It’s what made me laugh hardest at unskewers in 2012
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I think in 14 it underestimated GOP performance in some senate races but got trend right. (You're right about 2012 Obama.)
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…then the cause was same: they’re doing such heavy weighting based on such small sub-samples of young/PoC hard to get right
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Fair and good points. ... Curious to see what we (me) learn from polling this cycle.
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I suspect we’ll see a growing gap btwn media & campaign pollsters, bc of growing diff btwn RDD & samples from voter file
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I'm assuming that data analytics allows a good campaign to know A LOT more than media or run-of-mill pollsters. Yes?
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And that makes for a very cheery day for
@DavidMDrucker -
Regardless of who is winning, I do prefer that I can rely on the data to be accurate or in ballpark.
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Especially Anti-Trump Statistics.
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Trump has led a couple of times. I believed that data also.
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You may have "believed" it; you just didn't tell anyone.
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Well, there weren't a bunch of Democrats screaming about unskewing. They just said they didn't expect it to last.
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Insight: this campaign, Byron York's work is consistently informative; his bias doesn't show; it's just good reporting.
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Byron is a great reporter & smart analyst.
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…& VA as much as they concluded that for now, at least, they don’t need to continue paying to maintain their leads in CO & VA
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Thanks ... And that's what I meant - that they've concluded the ads aren't nec to hold the lead. Not written clearly enough.
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I picture you celebrating like Wolf, if Trump looses this election David ...pic.twitter.com/XJUpuKUHY4
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At this point I'm going to celebrate like Wolf just because it's over. I'm exhausted.
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HAHA, I hear you brother!
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