If you believe the turnout models in that poll. But turnout modeling is an art, not a science.
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It's actually both. ... Poll has a good record. Was pretty on point two years ago. Polls are snap shots not predictors. So poll four weeks from now could look different.
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Polls have had increasingly less credibility, actually the reporting on polls. RCP has 32 toss ups. Actual last polls 16 Dem, 12 Rep 4 no polls or ties, all incumbent Reps. Almost all last polls based on 1 poll NYT/Sienna many opposite of previous recent poll. Not convincing.
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So don't be convinced. I think polls are generally solid. I think they were generally solid two years ago. The problem is usually human error in analyzing the polls.
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Always>>>> "The problem, said Cliff Young, president of Ipsos Public Affairs US, the polling partner of Reuters, came down to the models the pollsters used to predict who would vote - the so-called likely voters."
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The numbers only work if we do one thing. VOTE
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So much for the Kavanaugh Effect!
#MeToo
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it shouldn`t even be that close
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..you're driving a narrative rather than reporting news--media destroyed chances last week Paula Jones sues Bill -->Hillary attacks accuser -->> Democrats defend behavior --> Credibility forever tainted
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‘I want to apologize for lies and deceptions’. . .
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This poll is just a glorified generic national poll. Divide the number of voters polled by the house districts and you get an average of 38 voters per district. Generic polling is how everyone missed Donald Trump.
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Not enough.
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Nah, need a much bigger lead to actually win. 4 points is a rounding thing I'm sure. Show me a +10 and I'd say that would be a squeaker.
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Not if it isn't your district.
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That whole Kavanaugh thing riled up conservatives for about a week
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More of a problem if you actually believe the bogus poll.
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