My general rule on special election analysis. A win is a win, but peak under the hood. The stats below the top-line might reveal all sorts of useful info for the fall that suggests a special-elex loser *might* do some damage in the fall.
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Replying to @DavidMDrucker
it's a barn burner because of unsustainable Dem enthusiasm during a special election in August. When Balderson wins by +5 in November it won't even be mentioned.
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Replying to @sebastianjer
Balderson might very well win this seat by 5 pts in Nov. But the Dem enthusiasm is sustainable & is likely to be sustained. I rate the battle for the House 50/50 but I believe Ds will remain fired up
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Replying to @DavidMDrucker
Perhaps but it won't help them win in Republican districts with normal turn out. How much coverage you think we are going to see on Trump endorsed John James in Michigan? Or that he is a Trump backer..zzzzz.
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Replying to @sebastianjer
...Look, I've said Rs could hold the House but Dems are going to win a lot of seats, just not necessarily enough to flip the chamber. But that means they are going to win some # of R seats. It's going to happen.
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Replying to @DavidMDrucker
My guess for what it's worth....subject to change :) House D+15 Senate R + 3 min could be 5. Have not followed the governors much but suspect Dems will pick up a few say 3
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Not a bad guess. I have said as of today it's tale of two midterms. Ds could flip House, Rs could gain Senate seats.
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