My general rule on special election analysis. A win is a win, but peak under the hood. The stats below the top-line might reveal all sorts of useful info for the fall that suggests a special-elex loser *might* do some damage in the fall.
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One thing I'm seeing pretty consistently: the polling this year is pretty good at capturing what's going on and there's a pretty typical pattern of a Democratic swing (around 10-12% on margin) that's fairly consistent.
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No argument. I don't like to get ahead of myself, as they say. Politics is volatile and the news cycle lasts three seconds at a time.
End of conversation
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