My general rule on special election analysis. A win is a win, but peak under the hood. The stats below the top-line might reveal all sorts of useful info for the fall that suggests a special-elex loser *might* do some damage in the fall.
Balderson might very well win this seat by 5 pts in Nov. But the Dem enthusiasm is sustainable & is likely to be sustained. I rate the battle for the House 50/50 but I believe Ds will remain fired up
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Perhaps but it won't help them win in Republican districts with normal turn out. How much coverage you think we are going to see on Trump endorsed John James in Michigan? Or that he is a Trump backer..zzzzz.
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There has been coverage of that. But because MI Senate isn't on the radar (yet) you haven't seen a lot. That will change if James makes this race close, which I think he could, depending.
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Well if recent polls of blacks are accurate, it could get very interesting very fast.
End of conversation
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