The "A win is a win" line with these sorts of districts is a bit like saying "Hey, I walked across the street without dying. Isn't that something?" Yeah, a loss would have been catastrophic, like if I died walking across the street, but it's not an achievement.
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like I said, peak under the hood.
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One thing I'm seeing pretty consistently: the polling this year is pretty good at capturing what's going on and there's a pretty typical pattern of a Democratic swing (around 10-12% on margin) that's fairly consistent.
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No argument. I don't like to get ahead of myself, as they say. Politics is volatile and the news cycle lasts three seconds at a time.
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it's a barn burner because of unsustainable Dem enthusiasm during a special election in August. When Balderson wins by +5 in November it won't even be mentioned.
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Balderson might very well win this seat by 5 pts in Nov. But the Dem enthusiasm is sustainable & is likely to be sustained. I rate the battle for the House 50/50 but I believe Ds will remain fired up
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Perhaps but it won't help them win in Republican districts with normal turn out. How much coverage you think we are going to see on Trump endorsed John James in Michigan? Or that he is a Trump backer..zzzzz.
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There has been coverage of that. But because MI Senate isn't on the radar (yet) you haven't seen a lot. That will change if James makes this race close, which I think he could, depending.
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Well if recent polls of blacks are accurate, it could get very interesting very fast.
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You're so clever, David.
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well somebody tell
#POTUS...this shouldn't be closeThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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This might be useful to your future electoral prognostications.http://www.theamericanmirror.com/socialist-star-cortez-strikes-out-all-endorsed-candidates-lose-tuesday-primaries/ …
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I’m negative because of the margins but I do wonder how much of the “but it’s August, not November” rhetric is true
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