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One of Brett's best: a highly explanatory, down-to-earth critique of a widespread cluster of misconceptions about how science, and thinking generally, works. (And how they could or couldn't possibly work.)

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Brett Hall

@ToKTeacher

Jul 22, 2022

"Rationality" by Steven Pinker (@sapinker) brief excerpts with reflections on Ch 5 "Beliefs and Evidence (Bayesian Reasoning)". youtu.be/w_oAgapkAYA Also out as audio-only on all podcast platforms.

9:22 AM · Jul 22, 2022

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I am missing a punch line, in both Pinker's book and Brett's summary, namely, why is Bayes inference inadequate? Here is one punch line I use: "Because knowledge cannot be expressed by probabilities" (e.g., ucla.in/2nZN7IH). I don't think Pinker says it, does Popper?

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Popper says that subjective interpretations of probability aren't viable, and hence that framing the growth of knowledge as an increase in the subjective probabilities (credences) of true theories isn't viable either. Events can have probabilities; general theories can't.

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He’s repeating the same misunderstandings over and over. Bayesianism has absolutely nothing to do with hypotheses production, and everything to do with hypotheses evaluation.

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And now it's also been taught to babies !?!

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Allie K. Miller

@alliekmiller

Jul 21, 2022

There is a book about Bayesian Probability for babies. I repeat, there is a book about Bayesian Probability for babies.

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Homo Sapiens is a rational species hardwired with correct understanding. All Paradoxes defy logic. Understanding is more than Logic. Experience and understand Existential reality. All answers are there. Ask me