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DavidDeutschOxf's profile
David Deutsch
David Deutsch
David Deutsch
@DavidDeutschOxf

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David Deutsch

@DavidDeutschOxf

Physicist. Author of The Fabric of Reality and The Beginning of Infinity

Oxford, UK
daviddeutsch.org.uk
Joined September 2012

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    1. David Deutsch‏ @DavidDeutschOxf Jan 4

      @trishankkarthik When we know the possible outcomes and have an explanatory theory to estimate all their probabilities (and utilities) we can use decision theory to decide what to do: e.g. choose the action with the highest expectation value of utility. When we don't, we can't.

      3 replies 5 retweets 41 likes
      Show this thread
    2. David Deutsch‏ @DavidDeutschOxf Jan 4

      In particular, where probabilities are *unknowable*, there is no such thing as an estimate of them, nor even an "educated guess". Attempting those is then, at best, just scanning one's memory for prejudices, promised utopias and scare stories.

      4 replies 12 retweets 54 likes
      Show this thread
    3. David Deutsch‏ @DavidDeutschOxf Jan 4

      Where probabilities are unknowable (which is often the case in, say, political decisions), it's not the case that reason is ineffective. It merely entails a methodology very different from utility theory—among other things focused on institutional rules not individual decisions.

      9 replies 6 retweets 40 likes
      Show this thread
      David Deutsch‏ @DavidDeutschOxf Jan 5

      One of the damaging consequences of utility theory is that it makes people *uncritically certain* that they have ways of extracting knowledge from ignorance. Because (they reason) if there can be no such ways, there must be no such thing as rational decision making.

      4:56 AM - 5 Jan 2019
      • 14 Retweets
      • 50 Likes
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      5 replies 14 retweets 50 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Matjaž Leonardis‏ @MatjazLeonardis Jan 5
          Replying to @DavidDeutschOxf

          I wonder how, under utilitarianism, one is to make sense of people forcefully causing a person to adopt a different utility function than the one they originally had. (Through coercion, brain rewrites..) There seems to be no way to make sense of this, let alone see it as evil.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Matjaž Leonardis‏ @MatjazLeonardis Jan 5
          Replying to @MatjazLeonardis @DavidDeutschOxf

          In other words, it would seem under utilitarianism coercive (moral) education isn't wrong. Or right. Or anything.

          3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Mason  🏃🏻 ✂️‏ @webdevMason Jan 6
          Replying to @MatjazLeonardis @DavidDeutschOxf

          In my experience, utilitarians who’ve given this any thought at all tend to assign the meta problem its own utility function, e.g. under which *feasible* utility function can I maximize utility? IMO, this is why wireheading advocates are often utilitarian thinkers

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        5. Critical Rationalist‏ @Crit_Rat Jan 6
          Replying to @webdevMason @MatjazLeonardis @DavidDeutschOxf

          What do they do with the next level of meta after that? Do they try to determine the most feasible way to find out what feasible utility functions they can maximize?

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        6. Mason  🏃🏻 ✂️‏ @webdevMason Jan 6
          Replying to @Crit_Rat @MatjazLeonardis @DavidDeutschOxf

          I’m not saying it’s coherent

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        7. Critical Rationalist‏ @Crit_Rat Jan 6
          Replying to @webdevMason @MatjazLeonardis @DavidDeutschOxf

          Yeah, my probability estimate of it being coherent has certainly gone down.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        8. Brett Hall‏ @ToKTeacher Jan 6
          Replying to @Crit_Rat @webdevMason and

          In any case utilitarians are often times some kind of socialist-so though coercive education mightn’t be great for individuals now & then-or even most of the time is, for them, utterly outweighed by its benefits to the collective. *Society* wins even if Joe & Jane typically lose.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        9. Critical Rationalist‏ @Crit_Rat Jan 6
          Replying to @ToKTeacher @webdevMason and

          It's like Plato's totalitarian argument that individuals need each other, but society doesn't need anything outside of itself and is consequently more important.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        10. 2 more replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Dogan Ulus‏ @ulusdd Jan 5
          Replying to @DavidDeutschOxf

          True, not only for probabilities and the utility theory, but also for whole classical mathematics. A precise world is required to give a proof but the correctness of initial assumptions is often not questioned.

          1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
        3. 1 more reply
        1. Yamanaga‏ @Yamanaga2 Jan 5
          Replying to @DavidDeutschOxf

          Yamanaga Retweeted Ole Peters

          True and moreover, according to the ergodicity theory, expected utility theory makes a flawed assumption that we live outside of time, in parallel universe, and all current economic and financial assume EUT is true. For more please read @ole_b_peters belowhttps://twitter.com/ole_b_peters/status/1075860472409264128?s=20 …

          Yamanaga added,

          Ole Peters @ole_b_peters
          Replying to @ole_b_peters @StinsonAnalytic
          Bernoulli made mistakes: u(x) looks misleadingly meaningful there. But those who thought about the problem carefully understood that only differences matter (Laplace, von Neumann). -> Let's drop utility and do things properly considering ergodicity. https://ergodicityeconomics.com/2018/02/16/the-trouble-with-bernoulli-1738/ …
          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. jim‏ @ComJimmehnert Jan 5
          Replying to @DavidDeutschOxf

          It seems like a risk assessment might be a place to start with the probability and consequence info that you have.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Gregory Kovacs‏ @GMNat0127 Jan 5
          Replying to @DavidDeutschOxf

          Just honouring my family. I look forward to Constructors. Maybe I shouldn't say Quantum Ether as a craptacular abbreviation.pic.twitter.com/dvsYnPDAjb

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Gregory Kovacs‏ @GMNat0127 Jan 5
          Replying to @GMNat0127 @DavidDeutschOxf

          I don't understand the connect\disconnect between numbers and philosophy.... errrrr...? I don't understand the high\low of that.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Gregory Kovacs‏ @GMNat0127 Jan 5
          Replying to @GMNat0127 @DavidDeutschOxf

          You know I could write it down, it's just the utility.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. Gregory Kovacs‏ @GMNat0127 Jan 5
          Replying to @GMNat0127 @DavidDeutschOxf

          What are your thoughts on the Fibonacci sequence? What are your thoughts on the various measurement systems vs the rotation of the earth? How deep in induction should one go on any given topic? What is the utility of merging Hegel with any Radix scheme?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. Gregory Kovacs‏ @GMNat0127 Jan 5
          Replying to @GMNat0127 @DavidDeutschOxf

          How does one merge this with gravity? What would be the highest speed possible at which we could measure this?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. Gregory Kovacs‏ @GMNat0127 Jan 5
          Replying to @GMNat0127 @DavidDeutschOxf

          What would be a logical scheme or process in getting to the mirror inverse reflection or the regular reflection of that velocity?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        8. Gregory Kovacs‏ @GMNat0127 Jan 5
          Replying to @GMNat0127 @DavidDeutschOxf

          Yea.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        9. Gregory Kovacs‏ @GMNat0127 Jan 5
          Replying to @GMNat0127 @DavidDeutschOxf

          How would one correct that vibration? What ontological processes would be undertaken? When would those process not be undertaken? Why did we invent alternating current?

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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