Help a prof out and tweet a link to the paper.
Gary Jacobson pronounces the incumbency advantage dead in congressional general elections; finds ~2-point bump for House incumbents in 2018 after accounting for party lean of district/money spent and no effect at all in Senate. Voters cared about party & Trump, period. #MPSA19
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I don’t have one at the moment but if you email Gary at UC San Diego I’m sure he’ll send it to you.
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@RudnickNoah Didn't you do this too? -
Different methodology, so this is really cool to see
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this probably would've only flipped a few extra seats to Dems.
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I'd be interested to see how this disaggregates party lean of a district and fundraising from incumbency. Those seem to me to be two of the three elements of incumbency advantage, along with name recognition.
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There are different kinds of incumbencies.....
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And when Trump is gone?
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I think 91-92% for the House and 85% for the Senate if you exclude the special elections.
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