DataTrek Research

proprietary look at core US #inflation shows, well, there really isn’t much...

The @AtlantaFed’s #GDPNow model has become a mainstay of #economic analysis, but there's lots of other useful indicators sitting in regional #Fed offices around the country. The @NewYorkFed’s #GDP model, for ex, is nowhere near as bullish on Q2 as Atlanta’s take. And Dallas’

current #valuations the next decade looks really tough. Expect to see more #tech-based disruptive #innovation in this space as a result.

We did a thought piece on the state of the US #equity business – buyside & sellside – last night's DataTrek Morning Briefing. Our take: both the past performance & future trajectory of equity management & #brokerage is 100% reliant on #stock #market returns. Unfortunately, at

notable examples. The upshot: recognizing disruptive companies and #business models requires being aware of these pitfalls and doing one’s best to steer around them. Read our full analysis here: http://datatrekresearch.com/cognitive-biases-in-identifying-tech-disruption/ …

Identifying innovative #disruption carries all the same intellectual challenges as anything else related to #investing. Behavioral quirks like #anchoring, availability heuristics & survivorship bias all get in the way. We outlined those & a few more, & called out some

#Tech). Bottom line: we don’t like what we see here.

We reviewed Q2 #ETF fund flows in last night's DataTrek Morning Briefing. The data shows a clear story of macro risk reduction, marked by high #FixedIncome flows relative to #stocks & an overreliance on narrow slices of #equity exposure that have managed to work (US #SmallCaps &

end-of-quarter action. 2) Price leads fundamentals. 3) Sell when you can, not when you have to.

Recent US #equity #market action has sparked a flashback to sitting in at SAC Capital & a particular bit of wisdom we heard Steve Cohen impart one day: “Don’t make things harder than they have to be”. With that in mind, we have 3 simple points to offer. 1) Don’t make too much of

Fun fact: when the computer mouse first appeared in 1984 many #tech journalists thought it was a gimmicky device that would never see much business user adoption. Bad call. But just think how much more complex the world is now... Read out full take here: http://datatrekresearch.com/eek-a-mouse/ 

now much more a #Tech play than just a category killer shopping site. More details here: https://datatrekresearch.com/faangs-roommates-not-family/ …

$GOOG has the highest long run average correlation to the other #FAANG names at 0.62. $AAPL is the lowest at 0.48. $AMZN has seen the largest rise between short & long term correlations. It is now heavily correlated to @Google (0.70) & $NFLX (0.77). Translation: @amazon is

How much do the #FAANG #stocks trade as a group? Not much. Avg long run (2017-now) daily cross-price correlations average just 0.55. R-squared of only 30%. Short term (last month) avg corr: 0.60. R-squared of 36%. Full take here: http://bit.ly/2txE9FM 

Check out what @DataTrekMB's Nick Colas says is the "Trump Tariff Put" in @zerohedge!https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1011732092827455488 …

They own just over 11% of the 100th - 110th names in the Russell. Some in that range are closer to 15% ownership. Bottom line, if you invest in #smallcaps, know how much #ETFs own of your names. Full analysis here: http://bit.ly/2tBAzti 

Plenty of chatter around about how #ETF money flows artificially inflate #LargeCap #valuations. They don't: #ETFs own >7% of super cap names. Now, where ETF ownership really may be a problem: US #SmallCaps. ETFs own an average of 10.2% of the top 10 $RUT names.

Despite being in a mansion-sized doghouse, #bitcoin is still in our thoughts. We recently updated our correlation work on $BTC vs the S&P 500 for our DataTrek Morning Briefing. Does bitcoin’s decline tell us anything about the direction of US #stocks? The math is clear: NO.