@nelderini @pmarca not total clear on what the counterfactual case is, but on an unsubsidized basis the main drivers are tied to oil price
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Replying to @DanielleFong
@DanielleFong@pmarca The traditional linking of natty to oil prices is loosening. All three FFs will increasingly compete independently.1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @chrisnelder
@nelderini@pmarca agree to an extent but marine gas transport is way under provisioned at this point so LNG prices will cont. to approx oil1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @DanielleFong
@DanielleFong@pmarca Displacing bunker fuel with LNG also has a LONG way to go http://bit.ly/1u8GWel & will drive up gas prices at scale1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @chrisnelder
@nelderini@pmarca again, agree. And you said it, not me -- but we also have tech for that -- CNG tanks can react way faster than LNG plants3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @DanielleFong
@DanielleFong@pmarca But until then I think they'll remain quite independent.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @chrisnelder
@nelderini@pmarca economically but (a) I think you need to subdivide by region & (b) it's important people know the future they're building2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @DanielleFong
@DanielleFong But to@pmarca's original point, oil could go to $40 or $140, and stay there, & course of RE deployment wouldn't change much.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @chrisnelder
@nelderini@pmarca possible future history: oil at $140 -> 100% renewable islands -> launch storage -> global RE launch2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @DanielleFong
@DanielleFong@pmarca I like that story. I could tell another where same happens w/ oil at sub-$80.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
@nelderini @pmarca yeah, that's the plan we work with :) but energy on islands (e.g. Japan) going from desperate -> intensely would help ;-)
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Replying to @DanielleFong
@DanielleFong@pmarca We should sit down and blow through a legal pad's worth of scenarios some time. It's great fun.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
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