when adding together multiple lines of converging evidence, the uncertainties don't add, exactly, in many ways, they partially cancel each other out, over constraining some of the possibility space, rendering it impossible.
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in this case, the possibility space being canceled out is that omicron is no big deal...
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Replying to @DanielleFong
remember when logarithmic graphs were used by the New York Times to depict a scenario wherein 60 million would be dead within the year if we didn't vaccinate appears to me we've gotten a new variant of this virus right around the same time; if you look back, the OG was Dec '19
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Replying to @elementrus @DanielleFong
oops, they didn't use logarithmic, that was the issue hah. Math was never my strong suit
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Replying to @elementrus
actually for me and my family 80 million was our estimate too. it comes out a naive application of the numbers, as they were then, among other calculations. "registered cause of deaths" is at 5 MM. at near within an order of magnitude it's not bad I think, but;
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Replying to @DanielleFong @elementrus
the landscape of mutation was always going to drive this thing, and how do you estimate that? also, people *can* modify it in the lab, now that it's out, do you think people *won't?* they already have! it could leak. and any mixture could yield recombination.
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Replying to @DanielleFong
I would say there is more cause for concern regarding the huge societal mindset shifting from being anti-Big Pharma to outrageously lauding the inability for anything except perfection even when regarding a nobody online discussing, amiccably, related context.
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Replying to @elementrus
it is definitely crazy making. the societal pay off for this level of performance for this level of sacrifice is not really a point of discussion, because absolutely no it isn't
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Replying to @DanielleFong
Then something that ought to be relevant is the issuance of charitable reasons to rid businesses of 'undesireables' remember there was outrage for putting a middle bar on a bench to rid parks of the homeless; now services, including welfare, can be denied if you don't vaccinate
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i can see how this is a slope that slips 
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Replying to @DanielleFong
I've sat in a coffee shop (Tim Hortons) and witnessed people being kicked out, fellow homeless people, because they didn't have or couldn't present a vaccine passport; the shelter itself is set to refuse access to those without However, I'm never asked to produce such a thing.
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Replying to @elementrus
hate that. bureaucratic requirements can be tools of cruelty in practice
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