when adding together multiple lines of converging evidence, the uncertainties don't add, exactly, in many ways, they partially cancel each other out, over constraining some of the possibility space, rendering it impossible.
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similar possibility space was being canceled out in jan/feb ‘20 while infectious disease specialists were saying it was just the flu and that the general public didn’t need masks
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I don't think it's a big deal in that it's just as big of a deal as it was a month ago before people bothered to look for it in sequencing. Our positive case rate and hospitalizations are through the roof and people only now care because it's exotic...
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The time to worry was over a month ago. The totals are baked in now and it isn't good.pic.twitter.com/AsKtRA7cbo
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remember when logarithmic graphs were used by the New York Times to depict a scenario wherein 60 million would be dead within the year if we didn't vaccinate appears to me we've gotten a new variant of this virus right around the same time; if you look back, the OG was Dec '19
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oops, they didn't use logarithmic, that was the issue hah. Math was never my strong suit
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There appears to be disagreement in policy between the WHO and our http://governments.ie travel restrictions.
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i just need everyone in a position of authority to get a grip on how fucked we are, and roll with the punch instead of being in hyperactive, panicked denial is that so much to ask? all i want for xmas.
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Sort of agree but what definitely canceled that possibility for you? I'm thinking; there's still a chance (although Delta sucks enough under those circumstances)
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rate of growth in south africa and rate of growth in positivity of over 10x (iirc), proportion of omicron cases (>2/3x) at the same time as hospitalization is up by a factor. the biological evidence is supporting, bu the dynamics of this virus are clearly different
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