I think this is a high expected value bet. We all know these laptops are the sickest things in a long time, but I expect the financial world generally isn’t updating enough on it What’s the best argument against this bet?https://twitter.com/DanielleFong/status/1450517169435983875 …
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Replying to @nickcammarata
This is a bet that AAPL will hit all time high (and then some) by 11/26. Specifically that the share price will be higher than the options' breakeven of $170.24 by then. The reason the options are so cheap is that it's pretty unlikely.
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Replying to @usmannk @nickcammarata
Danielle will probably sell the options early instead of exercising. But then why not buy shares? Further complicating this is the earnings call coming up in a week or two. This will impact the share price, and the option price doubly so, however it won't include mbp sales.
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Replying to @usmannk @nickcammarata
To capture upside from the announcement yesterday via options I'd probably bet on the _next_ earnings call and buy Feb 2022 calls. Or shorter term just buy shares.
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Replying to @usmannk @nickcammarata
feb 2022 calls at $170 are nearly 10x more expensive, but maybe for good reason
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Replying to @DanielleFong @nickcammarata
They are definitely less of a lottery ticket :)
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