but don’t you know what absolute risk reduction is? it’s always lower unless the whole population is exposed during the current period of the study
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True but consider two scenarios with Two groups of 10K people. Scenario one: 162 cases in group with no shots and 8 cases with shots so 154 cases reduction. RRR is 95% (154 / 162). ARR is 1.54% ( 154 / 10,000), which does not sound as good as the RRR of 95%.
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yeah it’s definitely worse marketing but it’s also objectively a less useful measure than the relative protection, unless you’re really just trying to highlight that this is a rare disease, which during this delta wave it most certainly is not
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No. It's to say that the vaccines are 95% effective, which clearly they aren't.
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in the case shared above “RRR is 95% (154 / 162).“ matches pretty much perfectly my sense of what effectiveness means, for what it’s worth. ARR is not the measure of relevance when I think effectiveness…
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I think most people think like this which is why using the other % is deceptive.
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wait, you think using *which* number is deceptive? i’m confused by what you mean.
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Ok. I think that we should use the % change not the 95% or at the very least define numbers that are being thrown around and show that only 1% would have died anyways... or whatever.
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not sure what your counter proposal is! 95% implies that for everyone one that get a breakthrough, 20 would have gotten it were it not for the vax. afaik it’s closer to 87.5% but
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Exactly. That was kind of what I had a problem with. Also, using 2 years of COVID data vs 2 months of vax info and then stopped collecting the info, so the vax numbers still look good. I just want more number transparency. If they are that good, show us more
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“not sure what your counter proposal is! 95% implies that for everyone one that get a breakthrough, 20 would have gotten it were it not for the vax” i believe this is in fact what the numbers say!
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Pravduh Retweeted Brian Keller MD PhD 🫁 ♻️
I just think there needs to be better messaging. Not that vaccines prevent breakthroughs, because they are really bad at doing that. But that sometimes even the double vaccinated will die, but not as many.https://twitter.com/LungTxDoc/status/1438290706339147776?s=20 …
Pravduh added,
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Replying to @Pravduh15 @DanielleFong and
We need to be more clear on why to get the vaccine. And more transparent about where the protection is and what it does. Vaccinating 50% and throwing away the masks was the worst idea ever.
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End of conversation
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