Sure, because no one killed anyone when the flu vaccine didn't really work, so it wasn't a big deal. (Some efficacy with the flu vaccine, but if it you still got/ spread the flu, who cares only 34K annual flu deaths.)
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@DanielleFong it makes more sense, now, huh?1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
afaict this is still quite an effective vaccine, but the virus is evolving, what you gonna do?
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The reported 95% efficiency is Relative Risk Reduction. Absolute Risk Reduction is less than a percent. (page 3 table 1, upper left n values of 162 and 8 in a set of about 18K people) https://www.thelancet.com/cms/10.1016/S2666-5247(21)00069-0/attachment/bb4bb1cf-8d64-453f-a2b7-e1b95194c109/mmc1.pdf …
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Think of it this way; which number sells more covid shots and makes people feel better; RRR at 95% or ARR at 0.84%? The average person can hardly read a newspaper let alone be discerning enough to care about RRR vs ARR.
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but don’t you know what absolute risk reduction is? it’s always lower unless the whole population is exposed during the current period of the study
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True but consider two scenarios with Two groups of 10K people. Scenario one: 162 cases in group with no shots and 8 cases with shots so 154 cases reduction. RRR is 95% (154 / 162). ARR is 1.54% ( 154 / 10,000), which does not sound as good as the RRR of 95%.
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yeah it’s definitely worse marketing but it’s also objectively a less useful measure than the relative protection, unless you’re really just trying to highlight that this is a rare disease, which during this delta wave it most certainly is not
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No. It's to say that the vaccines are 95% effective, which clearly they aren't.
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in the case shared above “RRR is 95% (154 / 162).“ matches pretty much perfectly my sense of what effectiveness means, for what it’s worth. ARR is not the measure of relevance when I think effectiveness…
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I think most people think like this which is why using the other % is deceptive.
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wait, you think using *which* number is deceptive? i’m confused by what you mean.
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