Pre covid, NO ONE ever talked about 'break through infections' for a 'vaccine'. It either worked or not. Polio less than 500 cases WORLDWIDE last year, because that vaccine works; covid, not so well, but we call it a 'vaccine' and pretend it works like one so people feel better.
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If you separate 2 groups of the same people then they should have things happen the same. If the groups are large enough. So 2 halves of the same group should get covid at the same rate or die from COVID at the same rate. So baseline of 2 equal groups is 50:50.
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If you vaccinate one group and don't vaccinate the other group, the base would be no effect, which would be 50:50. Unaltered. If 40% of severe COVID cases are vaccinated, then that is a 10% change from the nothing group. 50:50.
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