The UK right now is a great example of how hard it is to predict what COVID is going to do next https://twitter.com/razibkhan/status/1430914553806794760 …
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I watched the UK and thought "ok, we're definitely going to be seeing surges over here" Then the surges came & was hopeful we'd see the same thing: case surges, but no death surge Now we see a death surge, but mostly in Florida? Which is just as vaccinated as the UK? What?
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And I haven't seen any really compelling evidence-focused reasons for this. Lots of guessing, lots of after-the-fact rationalizations, but no actual cause-and-effect *reasons* that we could take forward to make better policy.
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Replying to @DanielleFong
Where are those vaccine numbers coming from? They look lower than the CDC numbers for Florida
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https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covid-vaccine-tracker-states/state/florida … can’t vouch for this data source other than it was first google result
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