How have immunologists done badly?
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It depends which epidemiologists, but in the US, there have been some big errors. Recommending against masks early in the pandemic. Underemphasizing airborne spread (and hence the need for ventilation). Discouraging boosters for people who got the Janssen/J&J one-dose vaccine.
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Replying to @lucaswiman @ValoisDuBins and
These were mostly not errors of fact. The experts weren’t wrong, they were uncertain: respectively about asymptomatic spread, airborne transmission and benefits of a second dose (no clinical trial showing improved efficacy).
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Immunology and epidemiology are two different fields of expertise. I was asking specifically about immunology, a field which Danielle Fong describes as having done badly.
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to be perfectly honest, when i read the original tweet, my brain subbed epidemiology for immunology. immujnolohists have done fine afaik
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What’s the evidence that epidemiologists in general have done badly? (Expecting them to know all about COVID-19 before it arrived wouldn’t be reasonable.)
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biggest three goofs were expecting temp checks at airports to work, resisting airborne spread hypotheses even after the diamond princess and expecting the lethality contagiousness tradeoffs for variants to dominate and prevent a more severe, more contagious variant. really dumb
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Where and when did epidemiologists say that temperature checks at airports would be sufficient rather than better than nothing?
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all you needed to know that this was going to go pandemic was that people were relying on temperature checks at airports, the virus was presenting with low/no fever, there were still flights out of china and across the world, & R was > 2. epidemiologists failed their alarm here
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No, I do need to know more than that. Policy is not decided by epidemiologists. I think we’ve seen that repeatedly during the pandemic. Restricting the flow of passengers is also a political and economic decision. You need to provide evidence of some sort of expert consensus.
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look i can tell from the trajectory of this conversation that i’m not going to have the time to dedicate to answering every point to your satisfaction. but my perspective is that the people from inside the field (g eric ding) and outside (myself) were impugned as alarmists…
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Replying to @DanielleFong @ValoisDuBins and
…by tons of people gate keeping / claiming authority as epidemiologists/virologists and so on. at the same time the best models for spread were pulled together by eg. newbie volunteers like @ youyanggu. d614g mutation dominance proven by outsiders like @ plurplus….
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Replying to @DanielleFong @ValoisDuBins and
there was a pervasive sense of resistance on these factors. i don’t have the time or ability to condense the interactions i had into evidence that will convince you, but maybe you can take this as my opinion and investigate it yourself.
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End of conversation
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