It depends which epidemiologists, but in the US, there have been some big errors. Recommending against masks early in the pandemic. Underemphasizing airborne spread (and hence the need for ventilation). Discouraging boosters for people who got the Janssen/J&J one-dose vaccine.
there were individual exceptions, but there was an epistemic lag of like 8-9 months on key issues, like presymptomatic spread, airborne spread, and mutation. this slow response has ossified into policy, too
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Remaining agnostic/uncertain on those issues until there is evidence makes sense as science. For policy, if you're not sure if there is presymptomatic/airborne spread, you should *act* as though there is. That's the major failing of the pandemic: bad cost/benefit and decisions.
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i feel like that’s absolutely a failing of the discipline to not understand they need to make judgments under uncertainty when they are charged with understanding and exponential threat. every step, airborne spread, asymptomatic spread, mutation, long covid, major resistance
End of conversation
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