We finally have a word for people who are experts in AI, immunology, and Afghanistan all at once. https://philpapers.org/archive/BALET-2.pdf …pic.twitter.com/kOZeliKQ8r
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We finally have a word for people who are experts in AI, immunology, and Afghanistan all at once. https://philpapers.org/archive/BALET-2.pdf …pic.twitter.com/kOZeliKQ8r
the experts in all of these fields have done badly as a group in recent tests; i think if you study those who got calls right in one area, you may well find that the transfer of judgment capacity in one to another is non-zero
It depends which epidemiologists, but in the US, there have been some big errors. Recommending against masks early in the pandemic. Underemphasizing airborne spread (and hence the need for ventilation). Discouraging boosters for people who got the Janssen/J&J one-dose vaccine.
These were mostly not errors of fact. The experts weren’t wrong, they were uncertain: respectively about asymptomatic spread, airborne transmission and benefits of a second dose (no clinical trial showing improved efficacy).
Immunology and epidemiology are two different fields of expertise. I was asking specifically about immunology, a field which Danielle Fong describes as having done badly.
to be perfectly honest, when i read the original tweet, my brain subbed epidemiology for immunology. immujnolohists have done fine afaik
What’s the evidence that epidemiologists in general have done badly? (Expecting them to know all about COVID-19 before it arrived wouldn’t be reasonable.)
biggest three goofs were expecting temp checks at airports to work, resisting airborne spread hypotheses even after the diamond princess and expecting the lethality contagiousness tradeoffs for variants to dominate and prevent a more severe, more contagious variant. really dumb
What does the last one mean? I don't think I've seen epidemiologists claim that variants would tend to be less contagious or less lethal. If anything, the epidemiologists I follow on Twitter have been consistently saying that more lethal or contagious variants were a possibility.
🤷🏻♀️ Retweeted 🤷🏻♀️
i can’t say that i have a grat view on what the epidemiology community as a whole thought about mutation, despite my finding personal resistance to it, but in this article in escience a practitioner describes extraordinary resistance to it.https://twitter.com/DanielleFong/status/1428833098460958722 …
🤷🏻♀️ added,
That’s not an epidemiological question. That’s a virological/biological question (these are separate fields). And I have to say, I’m highly dubious that virologists thought mutations were unlikely. “Mutation rates” are a thing.
well then maybe you weren’t paying attention at the time. people in the field, some very prominent, very persuasive and influential people, were basically insisting that because this ahd a rate rate of mutation much slower than the flu, mutations were not really a concern
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