Ahhhhhhh fucking hellhttps://twitter.com/Greg0706/status/1415492599851409411 …
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Ok, did some hacky stuff in microcovid to try to model the wedding, got a 2% risk for each person, which means a 10% chance of >4 people getting sick from the original. So covid or delta in particular is maybe more transmissable than microcovid's point estimates would suggest.pic.twitter.com/hSMRrS15LI
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The upper end of microcovid's estimate was 6%, which would give an 80% chance of what happened or worse happening. Numbers: - guessed at 2/3 of people within 15 feet of you - wanted approx 2% of 1mil microcovids, since we know 2 people came in sick https://www.microcovid.org/?distance=normal&duration=300&interaction=oneTime&personCount=60&riskProfile=bars&scenarioName=custom&setting=outdoor&subLocation=US_48225&theirMask=none&theirVaccine=vaccinated&topLocation=US_48&voice=loud&yourMask=none&yourVaccineDoses=2&yourVaccineType=moderna …pic.twitter.com/VaPVKMrXhg
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keep in mind that the risk factors for microcovid were just a click beyond just made up in the first place
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