we've beaten three successive waves, and the current effectiveness is sufficient to drive even the most virulent strains to subcritical extinction with high levels of adherence. even if we're eventually hit, the vax is protective against severe disease
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Replying to @StewartalsopIII
i mean, it really was not so bad where we were. travel from outside the bubble was restricted, but life within was pretty idyllic. many things proceeded well. the travel restrictions enabled a comparatively normal life till the vaxes were available, which were rapidly adopted
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Replying to @StewartalsopIII
not sure what counterfactual you want to run. the obvious thing to have done would have been to shut down global travel in jan feb 2020 to ramp up contact tracing. could have saved north of 4 million people and months or years of lockdown. given that didn't happen...
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Replying to @DanielleFong @StewartalsopIII
...basically what the goal is is to hold off exponential spread of hte virus till the vaccines can be globally deployed. lockdowns are a more costly way to do this than masks, vaccines, or ventilation, so people usually hold off until it's already really bad. more stable from 0
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Replying to @StewartalsopIII
can you explain the question a little better? what is the global cost? of what? the atlantic bubble's successful covid policy? the cost is negative!
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Replying to @DanielleFong
The global cost of pursuing lockdowns instead of early treatment which was known about last summer before the last wave
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Replying to @StewartalsopIII
hard to say, because mutations are pretty path dependent and early treatment isn't scalable when health systems are swamped. the studies i have seen show that lockdowns do have a sizable effect on rt, but they tend to only be triggered when the situation gets more dire.
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i agree that it's objectionable that the social cost is born by the young especially in situations where there is little financial support. such a lack of support also fucked up lockdowns, so really they should go hand in hand
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